A general view of part of the South African Petroleum Refinery (Sapref) is seen in Durban. Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko

The surge in prices comes in tandem with a spike in the cost of food after Russia sent troops into Ukraine, hitting tens of millions of people already living in precarious conditions, as well as government and aid agency budgets.

Refineries across sub-Saharan Africa combined can process 1.36 million barrels of oil a day (bpd), in theory, but with many out of action, only 30% of that capacity was used last year, according to independent consultancy CITAC.

Refineries in Cameroon, Ghana and Senegal are shut, as are four in South Africa. Africa’s biggest oil producer, Nigeria, pumps over 1.3 million barrels a day, but the two privately owned plants still running there can only process 1% of that.

The African Export-Import Bank and the African Petroleum Producers’ Organization signed a deal in May to create a multi-billion-dollar “energy bank” to boost private investment in the sector but analysts say there a few quick fixes on the horizon.

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“Civil unrest increasingly represents a more critical exposure for many companies than terrorism,” says Srdjan Todorovic, currently head of crisis management, UK and Nordics, at AGCS. “Incidences of social unrest are unlikely to abate any time soon, given the aftershocks of Covid-19, the cost-of-living crisis, and the ideological shifts that continue to divide societies around the world. Businesses need to be alert to any suspicious indicators and designate clear pathways for de-escalation and response, which anticipate and avert the potential for personnel to be injured and/or damage to business and personal property.”

The United Nations has warned of the destabilising potential of disrupted supply chains and surging food, fuel and fertilizer prices, particularly in the context of Russia and Ukraine representing around 30% of the world’s supply of wheat. “All of this is planting the seeds for political instability and unrest around the globe,” said UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres in March 2022. Meanwhile, the risk consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft sees a rise in civil unrest as ‘inevitable, in middle-income countries, which were able to offer social protection during the pandemic but will now find it difficult to maintain that level of spending as the cost-of-living surges.

According to the Verisk Civil Unrest Index Projections, 75 countries will likely see an increase in protests by late 2022, resulting in, for example, a higher frequency of unrest and more damage to infrastructure and buildings. The outlook is most bleak for the 34 countries that face significant deterioration by August 2022. More than a third of these states are in Europe and Central Europe (12), followed by the Americas (10), Africa (6), Middle East and North Africa (3) and Asia (3).

Economic and insured losses from previous protests have been significant, creating significant claims for companies and their insurers. In 2018, the Yellow Vest movement in France rallied to protest fuel prices and economic inequality, with French retailers losing $1.1bn in revenue in just a few weeks.

A year later in Chile, large-scale demonstrations were sparked by an increase in subway fares, leading to insured losses of $3bn. In the US, the 2020 protests over the death of George Floyd in police custody are estimated to have resulted in over $2bn insured losses, while the South African riots of July 2021, which followed the arrest of former president, Jacob Zuma, and were fueled by job lay-offs and economic inequality, caused damage worth $1.7bn. Earlier this year in Canada, France and New Zealand, demonstrations against Covid-19 restrictions included convoys of vehicles creating disruption across major cities.

A network of disruption

The influence of social media networks plays an increasing role in mobilising protesters and intensifying social unrest. “The unifying and galvanising effect of social media on such protests is not a particularly recent phenomenon, but during the Covid crisis it combined with other potentially inflammatory factors such as political polarisation, anti-vaccination sentiment, and growing mistrust in government to create a perfect storm of discontent,” says Todorovic.

“Geography was less of a barrier too. Those with like-minded views were able to share opinions more easily and mobilize in greater numbers more quickly and effectively. In a world where trust in both government and media has fallen sharply, misinformation could take hold and partisan grievances be intensified and exploited.”

Targets of civil unrest, or collateral damage arising from it, could include government buildings, transport infrastructure, supply chains, retail premises, foreign-owned enterprises, petrol stations, distribution centers for critical goods, and tourism or hospitality businesses.

Companies should review and update their business contingency plans if necessary, considering any supply chain vulnerabilities. They should also review their insurance policies in the event of increasing local unrest activity. Property policies may cover political violence claims in some cases, but insurers offer specialist coverage to mitigate the impact of strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC).

“The nature of political violence threats is evolving, as some democracies become unstable, and certain autocracies crack down heavily on dissenters. Unrest can occur simultaneously in multiple locations as social media now facilitates the rapid mobilization of protestors. This means large retail chains, for example, could suffer multiple losses in one event at various locations in a country,” says Todorovic.

How companies can prepare and prevent the worst

Best practices for how companies should prepare for or respond to such civil unrest incidents depend on many factors, including the nature of the precipitating event, proximity of location and the type of business.

Allianz Risk Consulting has developed a list of technical recommendations for businesses and individuals to help mitigate the risks from civil unrest situations, considering these variables and associated pathways for de-escalation, communication, and response.

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Delegates comprised over 280 route development specialists, airline and airport representatives, industry suppliers and tourism authorities.

Under the theme Connect, Collaborate, Change, marking the start of AviaDev Africa and setting the tone for the conference, South African Tourism hosted the official AviaDev Africa Reception Event which gave delegates the opportunity to network freely outside the constraints of the conference.

Prior to the start of the conference, the Cape Town Air Access team hosted the VIP Airline Day, where 50 of the top airline executives were treated to a day at the Spice Route Destination, showcasing the beauty of the Cape Winelands.

The three-day conference also included a route development training session, various panels and speeches regarding building profitable airline partnerships, the role of air cargo, diversifying airport revenues, e-flight and its possible applications for Africa, implementing practical technologies, financing African airlines as well as a deep dive into some of the global trends.

A connected continent

Wesgro CEO and the official spokesperson for Cape Town Air Access, Wrenelle Stander, commented: “AviaDev is the perfect platform to have critical route development discussions, and bring together the right industry professionals, as we hope to see a connected continent and a sector that has the power to create sustained economic growth in Africa. Hosting AviaDev Africa here in the Mother City presented us with an unmatched opportunity to be at the forefront of African aviation development, in a period of growth, following the Covid-19 pandemic. It also provided an ideal opportunity to bring together over 300 leading aviation professionals with an interest in Africa to Cape Town and the Western Cape, one of the most iconic destinations in the world.”

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Mayoral committee member for economic growth at the City of Cape Town, Alderman James Vos, said: “Aviation is a key industry for Cape Town’s continued economic growth. This is why we fund initiatives such as Air Access which helps to land more flights that drive travel and trade towards the metro and province.

“This past month, Cape Town International Airport processed up to 30,663 passengers daily. In May, domestic and international passenger numbers recovered to almost 80% of that of the same month in 2019. Under the banner of aviation, we must look at opening up our air transport market even more. Where implemented, it has resulted in increased utilisation of airspace, more competitive fares and more choices for the travelling public. In order to optimise connectivity, we must liberalise measures and subsequently, enhance connectivity. This will undoubtedly positively impact tourism, employment and the economy at large.

“There is clearly demand for travel globally, and to our destination. And it must be our job to enable it, so that it thrives. While Covid-19-related barriers are now removed, we must not lose sight of others that exist in our economy and work with the same passion and determination to break through them too. This will be my passion and my focus. In doing so, we must leverage the lessons that we have learnt during these difficult times, where our resilience was once again tested.

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“For me, one of the top lessons was that partnership works. By working together and leveraging the combined impact of different levels of government, and the private sector, you can move quicker, more effectively, and with greater success in achieving outcomes. Which is why, continuing to back the immensely successful ‘Air Access” collaboration, based within Wesgro, remains a top priority for my term.

“One of the principal missions of this team is to increase connections to the Western Cape, especially with the rest of Africa, so we can make it easier and more affordable to travel between our countries and so that we can attract more investment as well as increase trade,” concluded Mireille Wenger, Western Cape minister of finance and economic opportunities.”

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Baggage mishandling: What do the numbers say?

While mishandling still affects a relatively small proportion of all bags, Sita’s 2022 Baggage IT Insights report reveals that more bags were mishandled in 2021 than in 2020. As the industry’s recovery began in 2021, the global rate of mishandled bags per thousand passengers reached 4.35, up 24% from 2020.

Our management system for mishandled baggage, WorldTracer, gave us an idea of how things are this year. The system recorded roughly three times more mishandled bag reports for January to March 2022 compared to the previous-year period. From April to June 2022, the system showed five times more mishandled bag reports than in the second quarter of 2021.

May 2022 saw a similar number of mishandled bag reports to May 2019, before the pandemic. The number of reports in June 2022 slightly surpassed the figure for June 2019, even though passenger traffic had not yet caught up with pre-pandemic levels. This means that the rate of mishandled bags per passenger could be significantly higher for May to June 2022 compared to the same period in 2019.

As the recovery of international passenger traffic accelerates, the rate could go up further because, historically, transfers from one flight to another account for most mishandling. The 2022 Baggage IT Insights research found that globally, the likelihood of mishandling a bag is about 4.7 times higher on international routes than on domestic routes.

Technology is the answer

Much of the challenge is down to staff shortages at airlines, airports, and ground handlers. They downsized to survive the pandemic, strongly impacting baggage management resources and expertise. In only a few months, they’ve had to switch from survival mode to almost full-scale operations due to the swift recovery of passenger traffic over the summer. Some concentrated spikes in traffic have even surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Fast recruitment to meet the demand has proven difficult amid a tight labor market.

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Airports Company South Africa (Acsa) has announced in a statement that Cape Town International Airport is experiencing further delays in receiving jet fuel due to slowed delivery times from its supplier. Rough seas are delaying the transportation of the fuel via sea vessels, Acsa said. An insider told Daily Maverick that the vessel is expected to dock [on Sunday night] with the fuel being available for use by Wednesday after transporting it to the airport and some routine testing, stabilising fuel supply by Thursday.

Mark Mclean, regional general manager at Cape Town International Airport told Daily Maverick that current jet fuel being used was left over from the last shipment and was being rationed to sustain the airport supply until the shipment arrives. Earlier [last week], the Cape Town airport had also received about two million litres of emergency jet fuel supply to sustain the airport as it awaits the vessel’s arrival.

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The first aircraft to don FlySafair’s new look is a Boeing 737-800 New Generation aircraft set to enter service for the airline on 1 October 2022.

“This is the 25th aircraft in our fleet and we’re excited to use this opportunity to add a little freshness to our look,” says Kirby Gordon, chief marketing officer at FlySafair. “FlySafair has been around for eight years now and after everything we’ve overcome we decided it was time to update our image a bit.”

The airline’s refreshed logo maintains the familiar pink and blue colouring with a subtle modernisation of the lettering. A new addition is a heart-shaped icon constructed by joining the stems of two location pins.

“Our aim has always been to connect people with who and what they love through our love of flying and so when we saw this concept about bringing two places together and forming a heart it just seemed like an obvious symbol for what we aim to do every day,” says Gordon.

The airline’s paint scheme has also been refreshed with the addition of a new navy-blue stripe to the aft section and tail, which is highlighted by a crisp white fuselage. “We wanted to find something elegant and sophisticated, but simple. The more complex a paint scheme the more costly it works out to be,” Gordon adds.

Conscious of its low-cost roots, FlySafair assures customers that even the new paint scheme has cost-saving front of mind. “It seems pedantic but the pigments in darker colours of paint actually make the paint weigh more, so keeping the aircraft largely white means we save money on fuel which helps to keep ticket prices lower,” Gordon states.

Post-pandemic recovery

FlySafair points out that South African domestic aviation is on a strong path to recovery after a turbulent year. Before the pandemic, South Africans used to enjoy their pick of approximately 1.6 million seats a month on domestic routes. This number was vastly impacted by Covid-19 and the subsequent failures of several carriers who once contributed to that seat total.

Today the market has rallied to about 1.2 million seats a month, which marks a full recovery after the exit of Comair. Supply is expected to increase even further as the 2022 summer holiday season approaches.

FlySafair has managed post-pandemic recovery and growth well over the past two years. This month the airline will operate upwards of 122 flights a day, which is a 36% increase on October 2021 and 67% more than what the airline operated in October 2019, before Covid.

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This after reports suggested that the International Air Services Licencing Council revoked 20 of the airline’s domestic and international route rights.

“SAA continues to operate its current network and schedule, with six regional and three domestic destinations. Currently, the airline has deployed additional capacity on the Cape Town route to meet demand, and we have increased the aircraft size on the Harare route.

“SAA made a representation to the International Air Services Licensing Council on its current route allocation and the decision by the Council to review some of the frequencies on the routes that the airline is currently not serving,” SAA said in a statement.

The aviation company added that it will be ramping up operations with additional equipment being purchased for its current fleet.

“The first addition arrived on Tuesday. SAA has taken delivery of an Airbus 320 which allows the airline to continue to gain momentum with the intention to resume full regional and international services.

Earlier this month, the airline celebrated a year of operations after it faced an uncertain future after it was grounded for at least 16 months and underwent business rescue.